The Forum on Global Economy today was very interesting. You can guess the themes and the applause for China's growth in the face of the GFC. They deserve it - the numbers in the big picture look very good - however here are some stories from the street that give you a moment's pause when you think about the future:
1: A University graduate in Shenzhen stands little chance of getting a job in the region unless they are really well connected. Way too many graduates and not enough jobs to go around. Yet the industry says it is crying out for good staff.
2: Traffic accidents, injuries and fatalities are commonplace. They usually involve freight trucks and passenger cars. Road transport is the bulk of logistics in China. There is little sense of safety on the roads, in spite of a massive roiad building programme across China. . The focus is on "serving our customers" with little sense of a holistic view on what this means for the community and the people
3: There is rising unemployment in Shenzhen amongst the guest workers from the regions. Petty crime is everywhere. They have no other way to support themselves. The GFC has definitely impacted on production capacity in the region, in spite of the rosy picture given by the economists.
4: It's clear that the Europeans and the North Americans are more interested in selling to the projected 500 million new consumers in China in the next 10 years than they are with buying things from China. In fact, the GFC has caused many foreign companies to source goods and services from closer to home.
5: Smog now covers the whole of Southern China. They have no plans to fix it. Copenhagen is a fantasy when we look at the region. Pollution is endemic and unlike the Japanese equivalent in the 1960's around the Inland Sea, this is 10 times bigger.
There is no doubt that China is a key to the future of the world economy and global logistics. However, the contradictions are great, and the challenge immense. The connection between what is traditional T&L driven by cost and price, and the future supply chain based on collaboration and sustainability is a long way off in Shenzhen.